Forecasting the burden of disease from diabetes under the scenarios of specific risk factors control in China in 2030 / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective: To forecast mortality, age-standardized mortality, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes, and to simulate the impact of controlling risk factors by 2030 in China. Methods: We simulated the burden of disease from diabetes in six scenarios according to the development goals of risk factors control by the WHO and Chinese government. Based on the theory of comparative risk assessment and the estimates of the burden of disease for China from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015, we used the proportional change model to project the number of deaths, age-standardized mortality, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes under different scenarios of risk factors control in 2030. Results: If the trends in exposures to risk factors from 1990 to 2015 continued. Mortality, age-standardized mortality, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes would increase to 32.57/100 000, 17.32/100 000, and 0.84% by 2030, respectively. During that time, mortality, age-standardized mortality and probability of premature mortality for males would all be higher than for females. If the goals of controlling risk factors were all achieved, the number of deaths from diabetes in 2030 would decrease by 62.10% compared to the predicted numbers based on the historical trends in exposure to risk factors, and the probability of premature mortality would drop to 0.29%. If only the exposure to a single risk factor were achieved by 2030, high fasting plasma glucose control would have the greatest impact on diabetes, resulting in a 56.00% reduction in deaths compared to the predicted numbers based on the historical trends, followed by high BMI (4.92%), smoking (0.65%), and low physical activity (0.53%). Conclusions: Risk factors control plays an important role in reducing the number of deaths, age-standardized mortality rate, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes. We suggest taking comprehensive measures to control relevant risk factors for certain populations and regions, to achieve the goal of reducing the burden of disease from diabetes as expected.

Analysis on the allocation of human resources for chronic disease prevention and control in 664 district/county-level centers for disease control and prevention in China in 2020 / 中华预防医学杂志

Objective: To analyze the allocation of human resources for chronic disease prevention and control of district/county-level centers for disease control and prevention(CDC) in China in 2020. Methods: Survey subjects were from National Chronic Noncommunicable Disease and Risk Factor Surveillance Sites and National Demonstration Areas for Chronic Noncommunicable Disease Prevention and Control (demonstration areas). A survey examining the allocation of human resources for chronic disease prevention and control at district/county-level CDC was conducted in December 2021 through the National Demonstration Areas Management Information System. The number and rate of allocation of human resources for chronic disease prevention and control in district/county-level CDC were analyzed and the Wilcoxon rank sum test was used to compare the difference between demonstration and non-demonstration areas and between urban and rural areas. The Kruskal-Wallis H test was used to compare the difference in east, central and west regions. The Gini coefficient and Theil index were used to evaluate the balance of human resource for chronic disease prevention and control. Results: A total of 678 districts/counties were investigated, and 664 districts/counties responded effectively, with an effective response rate of 97.9%. The establishment rate of district/county-level CDC was 98.34% (653/664), and the establishment rate of chronic disease prevention and control departments of district/county-level CDC was 96.02% (627/653). In 627 district/county-level CDC with departments for chronic disease prevention and control, the median number of full-time technical personnel for chronic disease prevention and control was 4, the median number of full-time technical personnel in demonstration areas (4 persons) was higher than in non-demonstration areas (3 persons), highest in the east region (5 persons) than in the middle region (4 persons) and the west region (4 persons), higher in urban areas (4 persons) than in rural areas (4 persons) (all P values<0.05). The allocation rate was 0.71 people/100 000, which was higher in demonstration areas (0.73 people/100 000) than in non-demonstration areas (0.67 people/100 000), highest in the west region (0.82 people/100 000) than in the middle region (0.71 people/100 000) and east region (0.67 people/100 000), higher in rural areas (0.77 people/100 000) than in urban areas (0.68 people/100 000) (all P values<0.05). The Gini coefficient for the allocation by population size was 0.352 9. The total Theil index for demonstration and non-demonstration areas, different regions, and urban-rural areas were 0.067 8, 0.076 3, and 0.000 2, with the intra-group contribution of 97.35%, 99.52%, and 98.80%, respectively. Conclusion: In 2020, the allocation of human resources for chronic disease prevention and control in district/county-level CDC is relatively balanced. The variation in the allocation of human resources for chronic disease prevention and control exist between demonstration and non-demonstration areas, urban and rural areas, and across regions.

Prediction on the burden of disease of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and simulation of the effectiveness of controlling risk factors in China by 2030 / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective: To forecast the burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in China by 2030 and evaluate the effectiveness of controlling risk factors based on the predictive model. Methods: Based on the relationship between the death of COPD and exposure to risk factors and the theory of comparative risk assessment, we used the estimates of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD2015) for China, targets for controlling risk factors, and proportion change model to project the number of deaths, standardized mortality rate, and probability of premature mortality from chronic respiratory diseases by 2030 in different scenarios and to evaluate the impact of controlling the included risk factors to the disease burden of COPD in 2030. Results: If the trends in exposure to risk factors from 1990 to 2015 continued, the number of deaths and the mortality for COPD would be 1.06 million and 73.85 per 100 000 population in China by 2030, respectively, with an increase of 15.81% and 10.69% compared to those in 2015. Compared to 2015, the age-standardized mortality rate would decrease by 38.88%, and the premature mortality would reduce by 52.73% by 2030. If the smoking rate and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentration separately achieve their control targets by 2030, there would be 0.34 and 0.27 million deaths that could be avoided compared to the predicted numbers based on the natural trends in exposure to risk factors and the probability of premature death would reduce to 0.59% and 0.52%, respectively. If the control targets of all included risk factors were achieved by 2030, a total of 0.53 million deaths would be averted, and the probability of premature death would decrease to 0.44%. Conclusions: If the exposures to risk factors continued as showed from 1990 to 2015, the number of deaths and mortality for COPD would increase by 2030 compared to 2015, and the standardized mortality and the probability of premature death would decrease significantly, which would achieve the targets of preventing and controlling COPD. If the exposure to the included risk factors all achieved the targets by 2030, the burden of COPD would be reduced, suggesting that the control of tobacco use and air pollution should be enhanced to prevent and control COPD.

Prediction of disease burden caused by malignant cancer in the context of risk factor control in China, 2030 / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective: To predict the number of deaths, standardized mortality and probability of premature mortality caused by malignant cancer in the context of risk factor control at different levels in China in 2030, and assess the possibility of achieving the target of reducing the probability of premature mortality of malignant cancer. Methods: According to the risk factor control standard for malignant cancer used both at home and abroad, the results of China from Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 were used to calculate the population attributable fraction of the risk factors. Based on the comparative risk assessment theory, the deaths of malignant cancer were classified as attributable deaths and un-attributable deaths. Proportional change model was used to predict risk factor exposure and un-attributable deaths of malignant cancer in the future, then the number of deaths, standardized mortality rate and probability of premature mortality of malignant cancer in 2030 was estimated. Data analyses were performed by using software R 3.6.1. Results: If the risk factor exposure level during 1990-2015 remains, the number of deaths, standardized mortality rate, and probability of premature mortality of malignant cancer would increase to 3.62 million, 153.96/100 000 and 8.92% by 2030, respectively. If the risk factor exposure control level meets the requirement, the probability of premature mortality from cancer in people aged 30-70 years would drop to 7.57% by 2030. Conclusions: The control of risk factor exposure will play an important role in reducing deaths, standardized mortality rate and probability of premature mortality of malignant cancer. But more efforts are needed to achieve the goals of Health China Action.

Prediction on the cardio-cerebrovascular death and probability of premature death caused by common risk factors in China in 2030 / 中华预防医学杂志

Objective: Predictive models were used to evaluate the impact of common risk factors on the number of cardio-cerebrovascular deaths and the probability of premature death. Methods: Using the data for China estimated by the Global Burden of Disease study 2015 (GBD 2015), we calculated the population attribution fraction (PAF) of risk factors. The proportional change model was used to estimate the number of unattributable deaths by 2030, and to predict the number of deaths, mortality, standardized mortality and probability of premature death by 2030. Results: According to the natural change trend of risk factors from 1990 to 2015, the number of deaths and mortality would reach 6.12 million and 428.53/100 000 by 2030, with an increase of 59.92% and 52.87%. By 2030, the probability of premature death from cardio-cerebrovascular diseases among Chinese aged 30-70 years old would continue to decline, from 11.43% to 11.28% for men, and from 5.79% to 4.43% for women. If the goals of all included risk factors were reached by 2030, 2 289 200 cardio-cerebrovascular deaths would be avoided. If only the exposure to a single risk factor was achieved by 2030, blood pressure, total cholesterol, and fine particulate matter exposure were the three most important factors affecting cardio-cerebrovascular deaths, which would reduce 1 332 800, 609 100 and 306 800 deaths, respectively. Among the involved risk factors, the control of blood pressure would mostly decrease the number of deaths due to ischemic heart disease and hemorrhagic stroke, about 677 300 and 391 100 deaths, accordingly. Conclusion: The control of risk factors is of great significance in reducing deaths and probability of premature death due to cardio-cerebrovascular diseases. If the control targets of all risk factors could be achieved by 2030, the burden of cardio-cerebrovascular diseases would be reduced greatly.

Underestimation of weight status among overweight and obese adults in China in 2013 / 中华疾病控制杂志

Objective The aim is to understand the underestimation of body weight status and its associated factors among overweight and obese adults in China. Methods Nationally representative data were collected in 2013 by the China Chronic Disease and Risk Factor Surveillance which used a multistage stratified cluster sampling method. A total of 87 552 overweight and obese adults aged ≥18 years old were included. Demographic characteristics, weight perception and disease status were obtained from in-person interviews. Height, weight and blood pressure were measured through physical examination. Venous blood samples were obtained and assayed for fasting plasma glucose, 2-hour oral glucose tolerance test, total cholesterol, triglycerides, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Complex sampling was weighted and multiple logistic regression models were used for analyzing. Results Among overweight and obese adults, 74.7% (95% CI: 73.3%-76.1%) underestimated their weight status. The mild underestimation rate was 60.7% (59.6%-61.7%) while the severe was 14.0% (13.1%-14.9%). The aged, low education level, low annual income, rural area and obesity were risk factors for both weight status underestimation and severe underestimation (all P<0.05). Awareness of having hypertension and dyslipidemia were protective factors (all P<0.05). Conclusions Most overweight and obese adults in China underestimated their own weight status, which was affected by age, education and income level, awareness of having chronic diseases and other factors. Targeted interventions should be carried out for different characteristic groups.